Guess May Be Getting Bought Out—But That’s Just the Start of the Tariff Shake-Up

From Guess possible ownership changes to tariff headaches and a China exit, Guess is facing a lot. Here’s what’s happening behind the denim.

Let’s get into some denim drama—and no, I don’t mean low-rise jeans making a comeback (again). This is about Guess Inc., the iconic denim brand we all know, which is currently juggling a potential buyout, hefty new tariffs, and a major business exit from China. Basically, there’s a lot going down at Guess HQ, according to WWD.

Iris Law for Guess Jeans. Iris Law for Guess Jeans

If you’ve ever wondered how a fashion brand survives global curveballs, economic policy shifts, and ownership drama, this is the inside look you didn’t know you needed.

So... Who’s Trying to Buy Guess?

Let’s start with the big headline: Guess is exploring a potential buyout deal with WHP Global—the brand management company that owns and partners with names like Toys “R” Us, Express, and Anne Klein.\

The setup on the table? WHP would scoop up the Guess brand’s intellectual property (IP)—basically, the rights to the name, logos, designs—while the current leaders (including cofounders Paul and Maurice Marciano and CEO Carlos Alberini) would keep running the day-to-day operations.

In other words, WHP owns the brand, and the Marcianos run the show. Think of it like owning the house but renting it out to your cousins.

The offer is $13 per share for investors outside of that Marciano-Alberini trio. Right now, the deal’s just in the evaluation stage, with lawyers and bankers doing their thing, but it could mean some major structural changes for Guess if it goes through.

Meanwhile… U.S. Tariffs Are Causing Chaos

As if a buyout wasn’t enough drama, Guess is also dealing with a serious economic plot twist: new tariffs from the U.S. government—aka higher taxes on goods coming into the country. These tariffs are part of former President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” policy, and they could seriously shake up how and where fashion brands source their products.

Here’s the deal:Guess currently directly produces and sells around $200 million worth of goods in the U.S. that could be hit with these higher tariffs. That’s about 25% of their total business. The rest is international and mostly unaffected, which is a relief.

But that 25%? It still matters. About a third of it is linked to Rag & Bone, a premium brand with more wiggle room on pricing. The other two-thirds come from outlet and gift product sales, where customers are more price-sensitive.

To dodge the tariff hit, Guess is looking to shift production to Latin America, where duties are less intense. It’s like a massive game of supply chain musical chairs, and brands like Guess are trying to stay ahead of the music.

Not Just Where They Make It—But Where They Sell It

Guess isn’t just rethinking where it manufactures goods—it’s also changing up where it sells them.

Take China, for example. Despite its huge potential, Guess has struggled in Greater China, and they’re now ready to hand off the business there to someone else. Alberini said the China market will likely lose them about $20 million this year. So instead of trying to fix it from afar, they’re planning to turn operations over to a third-party partner.

Guess has already met with possible candidates and expects to close the deal by the end of 2025. The hope? A much healthier bottom line by 2027 and beyond.

A Quick Look at the Numbers

For anyone wondering how all of this is affecting Guess financially, here’s the quick-and-dirty:

• Q4 revenue: $932 million (up 5%)

• Earnings per share: $1.48 (down 26.4%, but still better than expected)

• 2025 forecast: Sales could rise between 3.9% and 6.2%, but that doesn’t factor in the new tariffs

So yeah, revenue’s growing, but profits are getting squeezed—and the uncertainty around tariffs and restructuring is keeping things unpredictable.

The Bottom Line

This isn’t just a story about a company trying to stay profitable—it’s a real look at how even big-name fashion brands have to constantly adapt. Whether it’s a possible buyout, reorganizing international strategy, or pivoting production, Guess is clearly in evolution mode.

They’re trimming the fat (closing 20 North American stores), finding strategic partners (especially in China), and getting creative about how to protect their margins in a post-tariff world.

One thing’s for sure: denim isn’t the only thing getting reshaped at Guess.

Are you surprised by all the change happening behind the scenes at big fashion brands like Guess? Would a brand buyout make you feel different about buying from them? Let's chat in the comments